Retirement Stress Test
The first 10 years
See how the order of market returns could affect your first 10 years of retirement withdrawals.
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View scenario assumptions
Each scenario uses the same 10 pairs of stock and bond returns in a different order. Baseline is the reference order, not an expected outcome.
| Year | Stocks | Bonds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +15% | +3% |
| 2 | +12% | +2% |
| 3 | +10% | +2% |
| 4 | −20% | +2% |
| 5 | +8% | +1% |
| 6 | +6% | +1% |
| 7 | −10% | −5% |
| 8 | +5% | +1% |
| 9 | +4% | +1% |
| 10 | −5% | 0% |
| Year | Stocks | Bonds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | −20% | +2% |
| 2 | −10% | −5% |
| 3 | +15% | +3% |
| 4 | +12% | +2% |
| 5 | +10% | +2% |
| 6 | +8% | +1% |
| 7 | +6% | +1% |
| 8 | +5% | +1% |
| 9 | +4% | +1% |
| 10 | −5% | 0% |
| Year | Stocks | Bonds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | −20% | +2% |
| 2 | −10% | −5% |
| 3 | −5% | 0% |
| 4 | +15% | +3% |
| 5 | +12% | +2% |
| 6 | +10% | +2% |
| 7 | +8% | +1% |
| 8 | +6% | +1% |
| 9 | +5% | +1% |
| 10 | +4% | +1% |
- Returns are illustrative real total returns, including dividends and interest, before taxes and fees.
- Returns are applied before year-end withdrawals.
- Cash is assumed to maintain its purchasing power.
- Cash is spent first and never replenished.
- Remaining withdrawal needs are funded proportionally from stocks and bonds.
- Investments are rebalanced annually.
- No new income or changing withdrawals are modelled.
Enter your figures to compare three return sequences.
Disclaimer
The results provided by this calculator are estimates based on the information you enter. They are intended for educational and planning purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Actual outcomes will vary depending on market performance, inflation, taxes, fees and personal circumstances. Always perform your own research and consider consulting a qualified professional before making important financial decisions.